Thursday, November 10, 2022
HomeEconomics2:00PM Water Cooler 11/10/2022 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/10/2022 | bare capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Chicken Track of the Day

Laughing Dove, Amara, Ethiopia. “Track from a chicken on the bottom in a small tilled discipline surrounded by boulders and a small cliff, adopted by wing noise on the finish of the minimize because it flushed.”

* * *

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the biggest of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“Musk’s overseas traders in Twitter are ‘worthy’ of assessment, Biden says” [Politico]. “President Joe Biden mentioned on Wednesday he would assist a U.S. authorities assessment of the overseas traders backing Elon Musk’s $44 billion Twitter buy…. ‘I feel that Elon Musk’s cooperation and or technical relationships with different nations is worthy of being checked out,’ Biden mentioned throughout a post-election information convention on the White Home. ‘Whether or not he’s doing something inappropriate — I’m suggesting that — I’m suggesting that it’s price being checked out.’… Requested how a U.S. assessment would happen, Biden mentioned, ‘there’s numerous methods,’ however declined to elaborate.” • Hmm. Does Elon have a laptop computer?

2022

“Calcified Politics Offers Us One other Shut Election” [Amy Walter, Cook Political Report]. “However, as we’ve got written extensively during the last two years, different fundamentals matter in our politics; basic structural realities make ‘landslide’ elections more durable and more durable to come back by…. Occasions and the responses to them from politicians not have the flexibility to deeply and basically reshape our politics or political coalitions. With fewer folks prepared to ‘defect’, even when they’re sad with the established order, you get extra shut elections and fewer ‘wave’ elections. Additionally, when each election is an existential election, the drop-off amongst ‘in-party’ voters, which was as soon as frequent in midterm elections, is not the case.” And descending to earth: “In early 2021, Gov. Brian Kemp was thought-about essentially the most susceptible GOP incumbent within the nation. Right this moment, he gained re-election handily with 54 % of the vote. In Florida, Ron DeSantis, who narrowly squeaked into workplace in 2018, crushed Democrat Charlie Crist with virtually 60 % of the vote. Kemp, in fact, is likely one of the few Republicans to have survived Trump’s wrath. DeSantis is Trump’s most formidable potential rival. Each put numerous coin within the ‘credibility’ financial institution this night. Trump, in the meantime, watched a lot of his hand-picked candidates for governor and Senate go right down to defeat. All eyes shall be on Donald Trump for his November 15 “reveal” in Mar-A-Lago. Nevertheless it’s DeSantis who has the momentum for 2024.”

“Midterm 2022: Not a Referendum, However a Alternative” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “What was so uncommon was the unevenness of the outcomes. As famous above, Florida was a complete catastrophe for Democrats, with Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) profitable reelection by large margins (DeSantis gained by virtually 20 factors, an unimaginable unfold). The rout was so complete that Democrats even needed to sweat out a few Home races that ought to have been straightforward victories. New York, too, went effectively for Republicans, as Rep. Lee Zeldin (R, NY-1) held Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY) to a modest victory and the GOP seems to have completed effectively in Home races there, together with toppling Democratic Congressional Marketing campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (D, NY-17), who conceded Wednesday morning. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) might effectively stay the Majority Chief, however he noticed a lot of his normal crossover assist collapse final night time — he took over 70% of the vote when he was final up, in 2016, however is sitting at simply 56%. However in different places, Democrats did nice. They gained or are main in virtually each aggressive Home race of consequence within the Nice Lakes area and scored main statewide victories in the important thing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. There was some signal of this within the leadup to the election, through which Democrats have been fretting about some key races in blue states however have been holding up effectively in battleground states; this wasn’t a mirage, it was actuality. Loads of nonpartisan pollsters can maintain their heads up excessive on this cycle — among the GOP companies who launched a flood of rosy Republican surveys, not a lot. Tuesday additionally supplied one other reminder that Election Day chatter may be very deceiving — the turnout anecdotes and information we observed on Twitter ended up being nugatory in most situations. In our personal projections, we set the parameters for what we thought can be a great however not nice Republican night time. It’s clear that the GOP vastly underperformed what we thought was more likely to occur within the Home, and possibly, in combination, in Senate and governor races too, though let’s wait till all of the votes are in earlier than making a common evaluation of what occurred. We hesitate to say a lot about Arizona and Nevada, the place the vote rely is ongoing and the image muddled. The identical is true of California, the place a number of key Home races stay doubtful and certain will stay so for a while.

“Why Democrats Don’t Win The Manner They Ought to” [Black Agenda Report]. “It isn’t incompetence that retains the democrats from absolutely realizing their political energy. The horrible reality is that they like horse buying and selling over the problems of significance to their donor class than they do assembly the wants of the folks. Why does Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi continually communicate of the necessity for a “robust republican get together?” She wants a powerful republican get together, that’s to say one which doesn’t resemble the January sixth rabble that frightened many of the nation. A extra respectable and conventional republican get together is one she will be able to compromise with, and either side of the aisle can symbolize the pursuits of the U.S. oligarchy whereas pretending in any other case.”

Youth vote:


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“All eyes on Arizona and Nevada” [Politico]. “Washington wakened Thursday to a second day of ready as vote counters in Arizona and Nevada tally the ballots that may determine the steadiness of energy on Capitol Hill for the subsequent two years. The 2 battleground states remained too near name as of Thursday morning with tons of of hundreds of ballots but to be tallied. A 3rd uncalled Senate race in Georgia will head to a runoff election on Dec. 6, with neither candidate capable of meet the 50 % threshold wanted to win. The Senate’s destiny comes right down to the three remaining uncalled races, as Republicans would wish to select up two Democratic seats to take again the Senate majority. If the events cut up Arizona and Nevada, senatorial management will rely fully on the result of the Georgia runoff in December.”

PA: “Smiling Fetterman Asks Oz If He’d Thoughts Slowly Repeating Concession For fifth Time” [The Onion]. “‘I’m sorry, I didn’t fairly get that. A little bit slower please. You mentioned one thing about shedding? I simply wish to be completely sure I’m listening to this proper.’ At press time, Fetterman instructed that maybe he may settle for the concession in particular person if he have been ever in New Jersey.”

2024

“Progressive group launches ‘Don’t Run Joe’ marketing campaign in New Hampshire” [The Hill]. “A progressive grassroots group linked to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) formally launched its “Don’t Run Joe” marketing campaign in New Hampshire on Wednesday in a bid to dampen a 2024 White Home run from President Biden. As promised again in July, RootsAction launched the marketing campaign simply in the future after the midterm elections, hoping to discourage Biden from in search of a second time period. ‘It’s clear that Joe Biden shouldn’t be the get together’s presidential nominee in 2024,’ the marketing campaign mentioned in a press launch on Wednesday.” • I hate that locution “linked to.” Linked how? By whom? It’s by no means mentioned. If you hear “linked to,” suppose “yarn diagram.”

“Trump Threatens to Reveal Unflattering Data About DeSantis if He Runs” [New York Times]. “Mr. Trump added, in remarks revealed on Tuesday by The Wall Road Journal, ‘If he did run, I’ll inform you issues about him that gained’t be very flattering. I do know extra about him than anyone apart from maybe his spouse, who is basically working his marketing campaign.’ The previous president, making ready to announce a uncommon candidacy for the White Home after a defeat, was thus brazenly threatening to smear the one that can be thought-about his main rival, ought to he select to run.” • Oh, the agastitude!

“Trump Bought a Midterm Shellacking. It Doesn’t Imply A lot for 2024” [Politico]. “Trump, the unique energy of constructive pondering candidate, sloughed off the defeat like a Gila monster shedding its pores and skin…. However Trump’s 2022 embarrassment says little about his endurance as a candidate…. Untested by the 2022 election is Trump’s viability as a presidential candidate in 2024. Solely a fraction of the get together devoted who supported him in December 2020 has peeled off. His capability to lift cash stays strong. And victorious Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — a possible high Trump contender for the nomination — has but to show an electoral enchantment outdoors of his residence state. Do you bear in mind what a formidable presidential candidate Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was regarded as earlier than he ran face-first into the Trump angle grinder within the 2015 main debates? The ashes of the 2022 election have but to show chilly. The press corps can’t afford to repeat the error it’s made again and again by underestimating Trump. Even Gila monsters have just a few unhealthy days. That mentioned, it’s true that Trump has by no means gave the impression to be politically weaker than he’s at this second. Reporters and columnists have sniffed this out, so it’s solely pure that they’ve taken out their tape measures to correctly gown him in a pinewood overcoat. However midterm elections are midterm elections — vital to restock Congress and the varied places of work across the nation however virtually nugatory in predicting a presidential aspirant’s speedy future.” • I am going again to Trump talking for over fifteen minutes in a driving rainstorm. Present me one other candidate who would try this for his or her voters. Trump’s flaws are of gigantic scale. But he stays of a distinct scale than the remainder of the sector. Definitely the Republican discipline. He’s merely a much bigger man.

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working components of the Celebration reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not fully) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

#COVID19

Lambert right here: I can’t name a winter surge, although we’ll actually have to attend for Thanksgiving journey. Nonetheless, excessive transmission (CDC), the elevation and continued improve in positivity (Walgreens), and the regular takeover of BQ.1* (CDC; Walgreens) are all a bit of unsettling (as is the obvious proliferation of variants). Keep protected on the market!

• ”How Did We Get Right here?” [Britta Love, Sex, Drugs, and Covid]. The deck: “Consenting to a Mass Disabling Occasion.” “On this second we’ve got, one way or the other, collectively determined that it’s OK that our most susceptible members of society – the aged, immunocompromised, the chronically sick and disabled, are being systematically excluded from taking part in society outdoors of the house, indefinitely. For essentially the most half, we don’t even masks in medical places of work or grocery shops to raised defend them/us. They/we will both stay remoted, or danger dying. Make no mistake, that is the normalization of eugenics…. In the event you’ve ever questioned what you’d be doing should you lived in one of many scary occasions in historical past, when a society had determined some folks had much less worth than others, the place constructions of energy colluded to whitewash the reality about hurt that was taking place to tons of of hundreds of individuals every day, when social norms had shifted to normalize dying and struggling of many for the advantage of the few? You’re doing it proper now.” • The adults are in cost!

• From the WikiPedia entry (sorry!) on Geoffrey Rose, an eminent epidemiologist whose concepts have been credited with reworking the strategy to methods for enhancing well being:

Of his quite a few publications, there are two that stand out when it comes to their affect on the self-discipline of epidemiology, the seminal 1985 article “Sick People and Sick Populations” and his 1992 ebook “The Technique of Preventive Drugs”. The impression goes past the sector of epidemiology and into that of public well being typically. One publication claimed that “An off-the-cuff Social Sciences Quotation Index search yielded over 700 citations of this work”. As S Schwartz and AV Diez-Roux identified, the central lesson that has been built-in into the aforementioned fields is that ““. It was their assertion that this perception of Rose has profound implications for intervention and prevention methods, and has been integrated into analysis contexts via an understanding of the distinction between measures of absolute and relative danger.

In accordance with Rose,

This “excessive danger” technique is precisely the “centered prevention” advocated by the scumsucking eugenicists brave but misguided authors of the Nice Barrington Declaration, who supplied the ideological justification for the Biden Administration to desert protections.

In different phrases, the ‘high-risk technique’ is ‘a focused rescue operation for susceptible people’. The goal is to assist every particular person cut back the excessive stage of publicity to a trigger or to some intermediate variable. Primary strengths of this technique embrace: the intervention could also be matched to the wants of the person; it might keep away from interference with those that are usually not at a particular danger; it might be accommodated throughout the moral and cultural values, organisation, and economics, of the well being care system; selectivity might improve the chance of an economical use of sources.

A failure of high-risk prevention methods is their lack of ability to stop illness within the massive a part of the inhabitants at a comparatively small danger and from which most instances of ailments originate.

In different phrases, the Biden Administration’s “excessive danger” technique failed in precisely the best way Rose predicted it will fail. Below the Biden Administration, the general public well being institution systematically erased a 2022 – 1992 = 30-year-old self-discipline, good job.

• On Covid denial:

For many who got here in late, a clip:

* * *

• Cute:


* * *

• Maskstravaganza: Bonnie Henry is the Provincial Well being Officer for British Columbia:

Pricey Lord. I maintain that means to do a write-up on Henry, as a result of she’s such an egregious instance of the whole lot that’s incorrect with public well being. Canadian readers, you may give me pointers in feedback, or ship them to me through e mail. Thanks!

• Yet one more thread on masks availability:

Made in America!

* * *

• The direct strategy:


* * *

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to neighborhood transmission. (That is the map CDC needs solely hospitals to have a look at, not you.)

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, November 8:

1.1%. Enhance.

Wastewater

Wastewater information (CDC), November 6:

Lambert right here: Every dot is a sewershed, and since lastly we’re getting some orange dots for New York, I believed I’d click on on the dot for Queens, the place each JFK and LGA are situated, with outcomes that you just see. Heaven forfend CDC ought to give us a variant breakdown by sewershed, so we don’t know if that upward-pointing arrow is because of BQ.1* or not. In any case, if you’re the cautious type, I’d contemplate EWR (although in fact there are lots of different elements to contemplate, like air flow and the configuration of loos). Weirdly, CDC wastewater is lagging each anecdotal experiences and hospital information, however I determine that’s simply CDC’s information store, what are you able to do.

November 5:

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how gradual the variant information is. Does no person within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC right here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, educational tempo totally incompatible with defending your self in opposition to a variant exhibiting doubling conduct.

Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), October 24:

Lambert right here: BQ.1* shifting alongside fairly briskly.

Variant information, nationwide (CDC), October 15 (Nowcast off):

BQ.1* shifting alongside fairly briskly. New York/New Jersey numbers are increased:

NOT UPDATED And as a test, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization continues to extend, from November 9:

Lambert right here: I’ve added yellow traces to indicate the slopes of earlier surges. This one appears fairly sedate, as surges go.

Deaths

Demise price (Our World in Information):

Whole: 1,099,494 – 1,098,524 = 970 (970 * 365 = 354,050, which is right this moment’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may should determine that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission completed” for this specific tranche of dying and illness).

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, every day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to the whole lot else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of Individuals submitting new claims for unemployment advantages rose by 7,000 to 225,000 on the week ending November fifth, the best improve in 4 weeks and surpassing expectations of 220,000. The end result eased perceptions of a tighter labor market, clashing with the hawkish coverage signaled by the Federal Reserve in its November assembly.”

Inflation: “United States Inflation Charge” [Trading Economics]. “The annual inflation price within the US slowed for a 4th month to 7.7% in October, the bottom since January, and under forecasts of 8%. It compares with 8.2% in September.”

Inflation: “United States Shopper Value Index (CPI)” [Trading Economics]. “The annual inflation price within the US slowed for a fourth month to 7.7% in October of 2022, the bottom since January, and under market forecasts of 8%. It compares with 8.2% in September. In comparison with the earlier month, the CPI rose 0.4%, the identical as in September and under expectations of a better 0.6% price. The index for shelter contributed over half of the month-to-month all objects improve, with the indexes for gasoline and meals additionally growing. Nonetheless, figures proceed to level to robust inflationary pressures and a broad worth improve throughout the financial system, primarily within the companies sector whereas costs of products have benefited from some enhancements in provide chains.”

* * *

The Bezzle: “FTX’ed: The Tangled Ties Of Celsius Community and Sam Bankman-Fried” [Dirty Bubble Media]. From October 31:

Nonetheless, it will behoove any events to be taught a bit of bit extra in regards to the many ties between Celsius Community and Sam Bankman-Fried. Public data, media experiences, and blockchain evaluation reveal that Celsius and SBF had a novel and multifaceted relationship. We present that:

  1. FTX enabled Celsius to govern CEL token markets. Throughout 2021, Celsius seems to have bought effectively over 40 million CEL tokens on FTX to drive up and keep CEL worth. This era coincides with the due diligence and announcement of Celsius’ $750 million fairness elevate from Westcap and La CDPQ.

  2. Celsius used FTX to liquidate tons of of tens of millions of {dollars} price of consumer belongings after freezing withdrawals. Along with utilizing the proceeds to pay again DeFi loans, a $104 million mortgage from FTX was discharged throughout this era.

  3. Celsius despatched tons of of tens of millions of {dollars} in borrowed stablecoins via FTX, probably utilizing FTX as a clearinghouse for distributing loans to their institutional debtors. We present that Celsius’ mortgage to the failed crypto hedge fund (Ponzi rip-off) Three Arrows Capital seems to have gone via FTX.

  4. Alameda Analysis is one in every of Celsius’ largest unsecured collectors, and Celsius’ largest unsecured creditor, “Pharos Fund,” is managed by a former co-founder of Alameda Analysis.

  5. Celsius Community and SBF share very shut ties to the doubtful stablecoin issuer Tether.

I haven’t been following the FTX debacle carefully, due to course it’s a rip-off, however working from what I noticed passby on my Twitter feed, this web site was proper early.

The Bezzle:

Nicely, possibly not a billionaire. Nonetheless.

The Bezzle: A thread on the malefactions of Elon Musk. Entertaining, however fairly lengthy:

The Bezzle: “Fb’s Mark Zuckerberg Firing 11,000 After Firm Spends $15B On Metaverse” [Kotaku]. Outdated information however the headline places the story collectively effectively. “What [The Zuckerberg™] doesn’t point out in any respect [in his email to employees] is that the corporate worn out its large revenues on Actuality Labs, the disastrous metaverse mission that even the corporate’s personal builders don’t wish to use. The aim of the metaverse, if it may be mentioned to have one, is to create some method of on-line VR house the place folks will wish to spend their money and time, which as but has not confirmed in any respect well-liked or profitable. With $15 billion spent on the mission since 2021, and with Insider reporting that nobody is saying precisely the place all that cash went, that’s seen common quarterly income decreased to $30 million since. It appears an unlimited elephantine topic to have disregarded of Zuckerberg’s assertion, not least when he says he’s ‘shifted extra of our sources onto a smaller variety of excessive precedence development areas,’ which extremely consists of ‘our long-term imaginative and prescient for the metaverse.’ Now we have reached out to Meta to ask about precisely this, and why Zuckerberg doesn’t check with this spending in his memo. Sadly, their solely response was to hyperlink us again to the memo we have been asking about.”

Tech: I actually ought to have remembered this:

Maybe Musk, like Steve Jobs, has a actuality distortion discipline….

Tech: “DuckDuckGo CEO: Search Engine Is Not Purging Unbiased Media” [Heavy]. • There’s meme working round….

Right this moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 63 Greed (earlier shut: 52 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 54 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 10 at 12:36 PM EST.

Healthcare

I believed I used to be the one one who hated the idea of a “battle” in opposition to, say, most cancers. However no:

Class Warfare

“The previous two weeks in US unions, October Twenty third-November sixth(ish), 2022” [Jonah Furman, Who Gets the Bird?]. On rail: “Rail negotiation updates proceed to trickle in, with the 6,000 members of the Brotherhood of Railroad Signalmen voting down their settlement, becoming a member of the BMWE in rejecting the most recent deal and making ready to strike. In the meantime, the 5,000 members of Machinists District Lodge 19 narrowly voted to ratify their deal (52% voted sure, with 59% turnout). The factor I’ve pressured all through is that . Marty Walsh apparently needed to verify no rail staff by accident voted Democrat in Tuesday’s midterm elections, so he went on CNN to inform them that Congress will preempt a strike. Clearly, rail staff know that within the occasion of a strike they will be compelled again onto the job, the query is just below what phrases; if Walsh says they’re going to be preempted, presumably that’ll be beneath the shitty deal that he helped dealer and that no less than the BRS has already explicitly rejected. Apparently, the BMWE voted down a proposal to increase their cooling off interval, after which days later re-voted (“vote til you get it proper!”) and determined to increase it.”

Information of the Wired

So, the distinctive promoting proposition of Mastodon is tone policing?

Sure, I do know Mastodon is federated, however this “good vibes” factor appears to be cultural, throughout servers. We don’t want no steenkin’ vibes!

* * *

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From CK:

CK writes: “From a way back stroll close to the Pyrenees.”

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