Friday, November 11, 2022
HomeEconomics2:00PM Water Cooler 11/11/2022 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/11/2022 | bare capitalism


By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Affected person readers, the Politics part will not be almost as strong because it could possibly be, however I’ve issues to take care of, and so should present a heaping providing on Monday. –lambert

Hen Track of the Day

Vinaceous Dove, Gambela Peoples, Ethiopia. “Track from a fowl sitting at mid-height in a tall tree in a clearing surrounded by disturbed dry forest.”

* * *

Politics

“However what’s authorities itself, however the best of all reflections on human nature?” –James Madison, Federalist 51

“Right here’s meals for thought, had Ahab time to suppose; however Ahab by no means thinks; he solely feels, feels, feels” –Herman Melville, Moby Dick

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

“Biden touts ‘unprecedented’ U.S. actions at Egypt local weather summit” [Politico]. “These embrace his signing of the USA’ biggest-ever local weather invoice, a $100 million contribution to a worldwide local weather fund and new efforts introduced Friday to scale back planet-warming air pollution from the oil and gasoline business. And, he famous, he rejoined the 2015 Paris local weather settlement that former President Donald Trump had deserted — “I apologize we ever pulled out of the settlement,” he mentioned. The raft of bold local weather actions is “going to shift the paradigm for the USA and your entire world,” Biden mentioned. He added: “We’re proving a superb local weather coverage is an effective financial coverage.” Regardless of these phrases, the U.S. has confronted continued grumbling all through this week’s convention about Washington’s stinginess in offering the lots of of billions of {dollars} in local weather support that representatives of growing nations are demanding…. Different potential temper spoilers for Biden’s look embrace meals and water shortages which have left convention attendees cranky, human rights and privateness violations by the Egyptian authorities, and contemporary scientific proof that every one this local weather diplomacy is failing to forestall catastrophic rises in temperatures.” • 100 million? Actually? Biden checking for unfastened change within the White Home couches?

2022

The Senate

The Home:

Raining on the parade:

I suppose profitable the election whereas shedding the favored vote is just dangerous when Republicans do it. Unsurprisingly.

* * *

NY: “Thursday’s Outcomes Are In: New York Democrats Like to Lose” [Hellgate]. “Simply 48 hours after a tense Election Day, it’s turning into clear that New York Democrats bungled each their probabilities of maintaining the U.S. Home of Representatives, and their very own supermajorities within the state legislature. Democrat Max Rose would have gained his problem in opposition to Republican Nicole Malliotakis in Staten Island and South Brooklyn, had state Democrats not fucked up the probabilities to implement the redistricting maps they drew. As a substitute, they bought grasping and their maps have been weak to a lawsuit funded by a Lengthy Island billionaire who didn’t need an offshore wind farm close to his property. (‘I simply preserve pondering of the outdated adage: ,’ a Democratic strategist instructed Politico. ‘There was a manner to attract these strains to make extra Democratic seats and stand up to a authorized problem. By overshooting, we’re now going to lose two or three extra seats than we have to.’)” • That’s a superb adage! Although apparently it doesn’t apply to Lengthy Island squillionaires.

PA: “Large John Fetterman Can Save the Democratic Occasion — if the Democrats Let Him” (interview) [Rolling Stone]. Oh gawd, the headline. Let the hagiography start. Can we, simply this one time, separate ways and technique from the particular person using them? Price a learn, as a result of Fetterman has some fascinating issues to say: “Simply this morning, I tweeted in regards to the micro-dosing revolution. Pennsylvania is the mushroom capital of the world, fairly actually. We produce extra mushrooms than anyone. And we’ve this different plant, only a plant [marijuana], that could possibly be an infinite boon from a well being and welfare [perspective], from an business [perspective], from all types of views. And that’s one other factor that we may get out in entrance of, fairly frankly. It’s that libertarian factor the place it’s like, “The place do you get off telling me what I’m able to do or not do for my very own well-being and well being when these are issues that I can develop in my yard with tomatoes.” And I feel everybody’s lastly realizing how really absurd this view is. And also you don’t should have an R [or a] D after your title to be disgusted by that sort of prohibitionist mindset.” • Properly, nice for Pennsylvania, however holy moley, I used to be I do know individuals who have been doing pyschedelics earlier than “libertarianism” was even a phrase.

2024

“Biden’s Misplaced Marbles” [National Review]. “n the primary day of November, President Biden visited the OB Johnson Park and neighborhood heart in Hallandale Seashore, Fla., to ship remarks on ‘defending Social Safety and Medicare and decreasing prescription drug prices,’ because the White Home described the occasion. Unsurprisingly, Biden departed from the principle matter, and in the midst of his remarks he executed the uncommon double-cringer: ‘Inflation is a worldwide drawback proper now due to a conflict in Iraq. . . . Excuse me, the conflict in Ukraine. I’m pondering of Iraq as a result of that’s the place my son died.’ This was the second time in a month that the president inaccurately claimed that his son Beau died in Iraq. Beau Biden was deployed in Iraq from October 2008 to October 2009, and in 2013 he had a ‘small lesion’ faraway from his mind and was identified with mind most cancers. In 2015, Beau Biden handed away from that most cancers. President Biden has contended a number of instances, with out medical proof, that his son’s mind most cancers was brought on by burn pits used on army bases in Iraq. Because the New York Instances’ chief White Home correspondent, Peter Baker, gently put it, Biden’s ‘misstatements have turn out to be extra pronounced, and extra seen, now that he has the highlight of the presidency always on him.’”

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should do this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, in actual fact, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.

Observe, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

* * *

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Growing prosocial conduct and lowering selfishness within the lab and on a regular basis life” [Nature]. The Summary: “The stress between selfishness and prosocial conduct is essential to understanding many social interactions and conflicts. Presently little is understood tips on how to promote prosocial behaviors, particularly in naturally occurring relationships outdoors the laboratory. We examined whether or not a psychological micro-intervention would promote prosocial behaviors in {couples}. Throughout two research, we randomized dyads of {couples} to a micro-intervention (15 min), which elevated prosocial behaviors by 28% and decreased egocentric behaviors by 35% every week later in behavioral video games in a dose–response method.” • Fascinating end result. I can’t dredge up the hyperlink, however I appear to recall that elevated “prosocial conduct” was just lately really helpful by one of many teams doing Covid post-mortems. In any case, I went on the lookout for the micro-intervention. Right here it’s:

The micro-intervention skilled abilities beforehand proven to advertise psychological flexibility34. The micro-intervention took on common 15 min. In a primary step, members have been instructed to explain struggles and stress they’re at the moment experiencing inside their day by day life. In a second, they have been requested about folks, actions, and different issues of their lives which are genuinely essential to them (i.e., values). Utilizing an experiential metaphorical train, members have been requested to expertise how their struggles interfered with the issues they valued. Then, abilities of current second consciousness and acceptance have been practiced with the aim of experiencing extra flexibility to make room for the issues with which they battle. Thereafter, the relation to their values was as soon as once more probed. The overarching aim of the brief train was to expertise that pushing away, avoiding, and battling stress makes it harder to work together with significant people and do significant actions. The launched abilities aimed to assist members concentrate on this, select whether or not to make use of acceptance, and to consciously give attention to significant folks and actions.

This flexibility coaching was written down together with follow directions inside a dairy that was given between T1 and T2. Contributors have been instructed to follow the workouts as soon as a day. The abilities included within the diary have been the identical as within the train and included current second consciousness (by way of an audio file), eager about their private values, acceptance, considering tips on how to interact extra with their values, in addition to reflecting about obstacles to implementing valued oriented conduct.

This intervention doesn’t strike me as that “micro.” OTOH, it’s one thing that might simply turn out to be a part of one’s day by day routine. It’s additionally the very reverse of what one does on social media. It additionally strikes me that “pro-social” = “enhance social capital accumulation” (worth impartial, importantly).

Social capital in church buildings:

#COVID19

Lambert right here: I can’t name a winter surge, although we’ll actually have to attend for Thanksgiving journey. Nonetheless, excessive transmission (CDC), the elevation and continued enhance in positivity (Walgreens), and the regular takeover of BQ.1* (CDC; Walgreens) are all a little bit unsettling (as is the obvious proliferation of variants). Keep secure on the market!

* * *

• Hypothesis on “immune exhaustion”:

Not implausible.

* * *

• The workplace:


* * *

Transmission

Right here is CDC’s interactive map by county set to neighborhood transmission. (That is the map CDC desires solely hospitals to take a look at, not you.)

Distinction CDC’s notorious “inexperienced map” (above). Don’t use it!

Positivity

From the Walgreen’s check positivity tracker, revealed November 11:

1.2%. Enhance.

Wastewater

Wastewater information (CDC), November 7:

Lambert right here: Every dot is a sewershed you can click on for information. Since yesterday we discovered elevated ranges in JFK/LGA’s county, Queens, I seemed as we speak at ORD’s county, Prepare dinner (one among two counties, really). Not elevated, which is nice information, all of the extra as a result of Illinois ‘runs sizzling” in comparison with most different states.

November 6:

Variants

Lambert right here: It’s past irritating how sluggish the variant information is. Does no one within the public well being institution get a promotion for monitoring variants? Are there no grants? Is there a single lab that does this work, and all people will get the outcomes from them? [grinds teeth, bangs head on desk]. UPDATE Sure. See NC right here on Pango. Each Friday, a stately, tutorial tempo totally incompatible with defending your self in opposition to a variant exhibiting doubling conduct.

UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (Walgreens), revealed November 11:

Lambert right here: BQ.1* shifting alongside fairly briskly.

Lambert right here: Shifting to the date at backside left; the date within the notes part is off, simply because the date within the positivity chart was off.

UPDATED Variant information, nationwide (CDC), October 22 (Nowcast off):

BQ.1* shifting alongside fairly briskly. New York/New Jersey (Area 2) numbers are increased:

UPDATED And as a test, since New York is a BQ.1* hotbed, New York hospitalization continues to extend, up to date November 10:

Lambert right here: Continued rise.

• In the meantime:

Even CDC’s notorious “Inexperienced Map” (which incorporates hospitalization as a lagging indicator) says New York Metropolis is in bother….

Deaths

Dying price (Our World in Knowledge):

Complete: 1,099,856 – 1,099,494 = 362 (362 * 365 = 132,130, which is as we speak’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may should determine that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of dying and illness).

It’s good that for deaths I’ve a easy, day by day chart that simply retains chugging alongside, in contrast to all the pieces else CDC and the White Home are screwing up or letting go darkish, good job.

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity as we speak.

* * *

NOTE: Readers, I’m submitting the FTX meltdown materials below “Guillotine Watch” as an alternative of right here, below “The Bezzle,” as a result of that’s clearly the place it goes.

Tech: “Inside Elon Musk’s first assembly with Twitter workers” (transcript) [The Verge]. Good scoop for the Verge. One fascinating angle:

I feel there’s this transformative alternative in funds. And funds actually are simply the change of knowledge. From an info standpoint, not an enormous distinction between, say, simply sending a direct message and sending a cost. They’re mainly the identical factor. In precept, you should use a direct messaging stack for funds. And in order that’s positively a course we’re going to go in, enabling folks on Twitter to have the ability to ship cash wherever on the earth immediately and in actual time. We simply need to make it as helpful as attainable.

This is able to be helpful, particularly to “creators” (horrid phrase) like writers, artists, photographers. It might additionally give PayPal, a ginormous monopoly, a competitor ( you, Matt Stoller). I’ll say Musk has brass ones.

Tech: The Twitter:

Tech: The Twitter:

I don’t love Musk. However the present Twitter dogpile seems to be to me like our organs of state safety + the higher reaches of the PMC within the media being actually ticked off they’ve misplaced management over a significant platform and might’t censor their political opponents anymore. (Reckless as typical, they’re ignoring that if they bring about Twitter down, they’ll harm individuals who use Twitter as the general public utility it must be, and evaporate lots of social capital for uninteresting normals like aerosol scientists, masking communities, and writers.)

Right now’s Concern & Greed Index: 63 Greed (earlier shut: 52 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 54 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 10 at 12:36 PM EST.

Guillotine Watch

Readers, I didn’t suppose I wanted to waste lots of time trying deeply into what SBF was doing, after writing “Moms, Lock Up Your Sons So They Don’t Follow “Yield Farming” in Crypto” (based mostly on this text by Bloomberg, “Sam Bankman-Fried Described Yield Farming and Left Matt Levine Surprised“). Certainly, it was solely a matter of time.

“Sam Bankman-Fried steps down as FTX CEO as his crypto change information for chapter” [CNBC]. • “FFS, put him on the subsequent flight to Venezuela!” (For future reference, SBF = Sam Bankman-Fried.)

From the guts of the PMC:

Stoller untangles the rip-off that’s crypto:

SBF’s cuddle puddle:

Large if true, and sure, the FTX org chart I printed in Hyperlinks this morning was, certainly, obfuscatory:

What a disgrace, “efficient altruism” goes belly-up:

Presumably as a result of efficient altruism is a money-laundering/virtue-cleansing rip-off.

* * *

And right here an amusing article from the crypto press, which I by no means hyperlink to, since they’re clearly within the enterprise of roping within the marks:

“From Billionaire to Almost Homeless: The Story of three Crypto CEOs” [BeInCrypto]. • That’s a rattling disgrace.

The Gallery

Bonnard can draw!

Class Warfare

“Pittsburgh newspaper staff go on strike over unfair labor follow” [Guardian]. “Greater than 100 staff represented by 5 labor unions on the Pittsburgh Publish-Gazette are at the moment on an unfair labor follow strike, together with manufacturing, distribution, promoting and accounts receivable employees. The strike initially started after the newspaper’s administration, Block Communications owned by the Block household, minimize off medical insurance for workers on 1 October after refusing to pay a further $19 every week per worker to keep up the prevailing protection. ‘Having medical insurance is among the most essential elements of the center class. It was the ultimate straw for us – we have been capable of say this was an unfair labor follow and we walked off the job,’ mentioned Kitsy Higgins, an promoting consultant who’s been on the Publish-Gazette for one yr. Higgins mentioned the newspaper’s administration had tried to get staff to just accept a healthcare plan with a $14,000 deductible that they rejected as a result of it was unaffordable to make use of.”

Information of the Wired

“Reclaiming (Cellular) Privateness with GrapheneOS” [マリウス]. That is extraordinarily nerdy, helpful for the type of one who installs their very own OS on their cellphone. Right here’s a helpful nugget, nevertheless: “As well as there’s additionally a community permission toggle that’s unique to GrapheneOS. This toggle exhibits as a checkbox on the ‘Set up app’ popup that seems when a person opens an APK. Unchecking community permissions would prohibit the particular app from straight and not directly accessing any of the out there networks. That’s a helpful characteristic for apps that gained’t want community entry anyway – e.g. a gallery or a launcher – to ensure they gained’t do shady issues.” •

Oh noes:

“Mastodon.” So, I’ve to get at the very least two names? One with preliminary caps, the opposite camel-cased? Or three? If I do, can I alias one account to the opposite? Like “toot” for “tweet,” who thought this was a good suggestion?

Dad.


* * *

Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are fantastic! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From AM:

AM writes: “October tomatoes.” A pleasant crop, and a superb reminder that you just don’t essentially have to personal or lease land to have a backyard.” Not lots of backyard images this yr, to date. No purpose to hesitate about sending them in earlier than the snow flies!

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So if you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get nervous. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In the event you hate PayPal, you may electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on tips on how to ship a test. Thanks!

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